Home Sale Pace Rises

Sales pace of California resales rises 85%

Real estate brief

By Inman News, January 28,2009

 
The sales pace of single-family, detached resale homes soared 84.9 percent in December 2008 compared to the same month in 2007, with the median sales price diving 41.5 percent, the California Association of Realtors reported this week.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of home sales in the state was 544,580 in December — this rate is a projection of a monthly sales total over a 12-month period, adjusted to account for typical seasonal fluctuations in sales activity. That compares to a pace of 294,520 sales in December 2007.

Sales for the entire year in 2008 were up an estimated 27 percent compared to the prior year, the association also reported, with the median price falling 38 percent in 2008.

The trade group’s Unsold Inventory Index for single-family, detached resale homes in December 2008 was 5.6 months, which compares to 13.4 months in December 2007. This index gauges the length of time it would take to sell off the total for-sale inventory, based on that month’s sales pace.

A separate monthly report by the Realtor group and DataQuick Information Systems, which measures prices and price changes for new and resale single-family homes and condos, found that five of 338 cities and communities tracked had year-over-year increases in median home prices.

SEARCH FOR HOMES AT Central Valley Homes.com

CAROL PERDEW
Prudential California Realty
(209) 239-7979
wwwCentralValleyHomes.com

Central Valley Real Estate Improving

The hardest hit real estate market is California’s Central Valley. Many homeowners owing more than their home is worth are being forced into foreclosure. The inventory of home has dropped to a low level of a 2-3 month supply of available homes. The Central Valley may have felt the worst financial crises but very well may be the first to experience signs of recovery.

Safe Havens in Real Estate
Excerpt by Louis Jones

Worst Market

California Central Valley

12-month change in home values:
Merced: -42.3
Stockton: -40
Salinas: -38.7
Modesto: -37.9
Riverside: -36.8
Vallejo: -34.5

The market hit hardest by the housing bubble is the Central Valley in California, where aggressive development and price hiking has yielded more homes than jobs. Now many homeowners owe more than their house is worth and are being forced into default.

Still, it’s not all doom and gloom for the California housing market. The drop in home values has created an affordable market for first-time home buyers. And, on average, monthly sales have almost tripled from last year. Although the Valley has seen the worst of the crash, it may well be one of the first areas to recover.

Thanks,

CAROL PERDEW

(209) 239-7979
wwwCentralValleyHomes.com

 

Fannie Mae is Requiring Homeownership Counseling

Fannie: First-time buyers need counseling
REAL ESTATE BRIEF by Inman News

Fannie Mae is reinstating required homeownership counseling for first-time buyers who don’t have a solid credit history or are seeking loans tailored for low- and moderate-income buyers.

Beginning Jan. 1, Fannie Mae will require counseling for home buyers relying on nontraditional credit or obtaining a MyCommunityMortgage loan to purchase a single-family home. Fannie Mae already requires pre-purchase counseling, including landlord education for borrowers purchasing a two- to four-unit property using a MyCommunityMortgage loan.

Counseling must be provided prior to closing by an independent and certified third-party agency or counselor, Fannie Mae said, and cover topics including budgeting and credit, selecting a home, and obtaining a mortgage. Homebuyers will receive a personalized assessment of their financial position and readiness for homeownership, and an analysis of their credit history and current financial situation.

Although Fannie Mae will encourage face-to-face counseling, borrowers who can’t attend sessions in person or don’t have an eligible provider in their area will be allowed to conduct sessions over the phone. Online counseling programs developed for and provided by mortgage insurance companies will also be permitted.

Counseling must meet standards established by the National Industry Standards for Homeownership Education and Counseling or standards of comparable quality established by other organizations, Fannie Mae said in a bulletin to lenders.

Evidence of completion of the home-buyer education session must be documented in the individual loan file by a certificate or letter from the counseling provider.

Fannie Mae offers counseling resources, including a “Find a Counselor“
search tool, on its Web site.

CAROL PERDEW
Prudential California Realty
(209) 239-7979
wwwCentralValleyHomes.com

FORECLOSURE FILINGS DOWN IN SEPTEMBER

Foreclosure filings down 12% in September

New state laws slowing foreclosure process

By Inman News

New state laws that require loan servicers to give advance notice before filing a notice of default helped push down foreclosure-related filings by 12 percent nationwide in September, data aggregator RealtyTrac.

California, which accounts for nearly one-third of foreclosure activity, passed legislation that took effect in September requiring lenders to make contact with borrowers 30 days before filing a notice of default. Notices of default in California dropped 51 percent in September, with a corresponding “significant impact” on national numbers, RealtyTrac said.

RealtyTrac said notices of default fell 66 percent in North Carolina, a state that now requires lenders to provide homeowners and the state commissioner of banks 45 days’ advance warning of plans to file a notice of default.

Lenders file notices of default as the first step in the foreclosure process, in most cases after borrowers fail to make two or more payments. A notice of default starts the clock ticking on a forced auction sale or bank repossession of a delinquent borrower’s home.

Foreclosure-related filings include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. Because many borrowers refinance, get current again on their loans, or negotiate a short sale or loan modification with their lender, not all properties subjected to filings are actually repossessed or sold by lenders.

But in many instances, the new laws governing notice of default filings may only delay lenders from initiating the foreclosure process.

After a new Massachusetts law took effect in May requiring that lenders give homeowners a 90-day right-to-cure notice, initial foreclosure filings were lower than normal for the following three months. But initial foreclosure filings were up 465 percent from August to September, RealtyTrac said, as the first loans subject to the new rule emerged from the 90-day window.

Nationwide, RealtyTrac counted foreclosure related-filings on 265,968 properties in September, down 12 percent from August but up 21 percent from a year ago.

At the state level, Nevada saw foreclosure-related filings jump 11 percent in September. The rate of foreclosure-related filings in Nevada — one for every 82 homes — was the highest in the nation, and more than five times the U.S. average of one filing per 475 homes.

With one filing for every 178 homes, Florida moved from fourth place to second on the list of states with the highest foreclosre rates.

In California, the dramatic decline in notices of default contributed to a 32 percent decrease in foreclosure-related filings. Still, one in 189 homes was subjected to a filing, the third-highest rate in the nation.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana and Colorado rounded out the list of the 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates.

For the third quarter, RealtyTrac counted foreclosure filings on 765,558 homes, up about 3 percent from the second quarter and 71 percent from a year ago.

Six states — California, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Nevada — accounted for more than 60 percent of foreclosure-related filings.

The 10 cities with the highest foreclosure rates among the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas in the third quarter were located in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada.

They were Stockton, Calif.; Las Vegas, Nev.; Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif.; Bakersfield, Calif.; Fort Lauderdale, Fla.; Phoeniz, Ariz.; Sacramento, Calif.; Orlando, Fla.; Fresno, Calif.; and Oakland, Calif.

Search Bank Owned Homes at CentralValleyHomes.com

CAROL PERDEW
Prudential California Realty
(209) 239-7979

 

Homeowners May Be Locked In Homes With Negative Equity

Upside-down borrowers locked into homes
Study find More May Be Stuck Than Displaced

By Matt Carter, Inman News

A new study suggests buyer psychology and tighter credit aren’t the only factors keeping would-be home buyers on the fence — homeowners with negative equity are often “locked in” to their existing homes and are nearly 50 percent less likely to move in order to take a new job, cut their commute time or move to a neighborhood with better schools.

The study, Housing Busts and Household Mobility, found that while becoming “upside down” forces many homeowners to move from their homes because of foreclosure, an even greater number have historically ended up stuck in their homes.

That’s because until housing prices rebound, a sale of their existing home won’t pay off their existing mortgage — let alone generate the proceeds needed for a down payment on their next home.

The study’s authors — housing experts at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Business and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — warned that the repercussions of “lock in” include less efficient job markets and reduced incentives for homeowners to keep up and make improvements to their homes.

Some families will not be able to move to access better jobs in alternative labor markets, the study concluded, while others who would like to move to access better schools or a different-size home will be unable to do so, the study said.

The study looked at two decades of housing data, covering the period from 1985 to 2005, and found that negative equity reduces homeowner mobility more than previously believed. All in all, having negative equity reduced the percentage of homeowners moving within a two-year period by 5.6 percentage points, a reduction of 47 percent from the baseline mobility rate of 12 percent.

“That the net impact of negative equity … has been to reduce, not raise, mobility may surprise some given the high number of defaults and foreclosures in the current environment,” the study noted.

The study looked at a period when subprime lending was not nearly as prevalent, and included only owner-occupied homes — not those purchased as investments or second homes. Only time will tell whether the number of people locked into their homes during the current downturn outnumbers those forced to move because of foreclosure, the authors concede.

Even if the study’s analysis of the past can’t simply be extrapolated into the future, “policymakers should begin to consider the consequences of lock-in and reduced household mobility because they are quite different from those associated with default and higher mobility,” the authors said.

More research is “urgently needed” on issues surrounding the “financial frictions” associated with potential mortgage lock-in, the study said.

According to Worldwide ERC — formerly the Employee Relocation Council — about 794,000 households relocate a year because they are transferred to a new job within the U.S. About 54 percent are homeowners, while the rest are renters.

Worldwide ERC reports that most companies offer to purchase at least some employees’ homes if they can’t sell, while 20 percent reimburse employees’ selling expenses. The group, which represents organizations that manage relocation programs, estimates $32 billion a year is spent on U.S. corporate relocations.

The new study provided an overview of past research demonstrating that falling home prices or rising interest rates can lock borrowers into their homes. Households without access to enough cash or credit may find their options constrained even if home equity does not turn negative.

Another factor that can trigger the “lock-in effect” is the original loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. The smaller the down payment provided by the home purchaser, the more quickly they end up “upside down” in the event of price declines.

The study noted that in the San Francisco Bay Area, LTV ratios were typically around 80 percent until the end of 2002, and then increased sharply to 90 percent in 2004.

“Essentially, the typical new home buyer in the Bay Area bought a house for $800,000 in 2006 using a $720,000 mortgage,” the study concluded. “If prices really do decline by 25 percent from their peak, the underlying house value will be around $600,000, which is much lower than the typical mortgage balance taken out that year.”

In the late 1990s, barely 10 percent of Bay Area borrowers had LTVs above 95 percent. By 2006, about 35 percent of buyers had LTVs exceeding 95 percent, and more than half exceeded 85 percent.

The study’s authors — Fernando Ferreira, Joseph Gyourko and Joseph Tracy — also shed light on how demographics affect mobility. While being married does not affect mobility, divorce does make homeowners more likely to move.

So does race, sex and education. Households headed by a person with some college have two-year mobility rates that are 4.2 percentage points higher than those without a high school degree. Whites are more likely to move than non-whites, and female-headed households are more likely to move than those headed by males, the study found.

CAROL PERDEW
Prudential California Realty
(209) 239-7979
wwwCentralValleyHomes.com

Experts Disappointed with Local Homeowner Tax Assistance

Did area get shortchanged by HUD?
Leaders, real estate experts not happy with share of foreclosure pie help

Dennis Wyatt

Managing Editor
Manteca Bulletin

Stockton-Manteca has been at the epicenter of the foreclosure meltdown during 2008.

But when it came to the Housing and Urban Development divvying up $3.92 billion this past week of the federal taxpayer funded Neighborhood Stabilization Program, a number of people ranging from both U.S, Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer down to Manteca Mayor Willie Weatherford and real estate professionals such as Tom Wilson believe the region got the short end of the stick.

Weatherford said it reflected Congress’ pervasive ABC – “Anyplace But California” -attitude when it comes to distributing tax assistance.

“It doesn’t say much about our Congressional influence,” added Wilson.

Boxer and Feinstein issued a joint statement that noted, “Frankly, it is beyond us how California – which has nearly twice the amount of foreclosure filings than Florida (561,223 compared to 287,210) – could receive less assistance. This makes no sense, and is totally unacceptable.”

California overall is receiving $529 million, less than the $541 million that Florida is receiving. The money is being made available to allow jurisdictions to buy foreclosed homes and turn it into affordable housing stock.

Northern San Joaquin County – which spent much of the year on top of the list of hardest hit areas by foreclosures in the nation – received the following amounts:

• Stockton, $12,146,038.

• San Joaquin County, $9,030,385.

• Modesto, $8,109.274.

• Stanislaus County, $9,744,482.

Cities such as Manteca and Tracy were either unable to apply or chose not to apply due to the complexity and short time frame. Merced, though, did, and got nothing.

Stockton still rates high on the national foreclosure list with one in every 15 homes in distress.

Manteca, a month ago, had 1,200 homes in various forms of distress whether it was an actual foreclosure or a homeowner in danger of defaulting on their loans. Home sales, though, have been picking off foreclosures at a rate somewhat faster than new foreclosures have come on the market.

That is where the rub comes in according to information released by the HUD in the methodology they used to determine what cities and states got assistance with foreclosures.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 calls for allocating funds to states and local governments with the greatest need as determined by the number and percentage of homes:

• in foreclosure in each jurisdiction.

• financed by subprime mortgages in each jurisdiction.

• in default or delinquency in each jurisdiction.

HUD used U.S. Postal Service data to determine areas where abandonment of homes were more likely, unemployment rates, relative home price declines, and other data to determine how likely it is that foreclosed homes will remain for extended periods of time unsold and uninhabited. 

 

View Homes for Sale at  CentralValleyHomes.com

 

CAROL PERDEW
Prudential California Realty
(209) 239-7979
wwwCentralValleyHomes.com

 

Banks Bid to Modify Home Loans

You could save your home Friday
Banks in Manteca in bid to see if they can modify loans on foreclosures

Dennis Wyatt
Manteca Bulletin
Managing Editor
     

There is a chance that a number of homeowners on the verge of losing their homes to foreclosure could walk away from the Manteca Senior Center on Friday cutting deals with lenders that makes it possible to stay put.

Five lenders – Countrywide, Indy Mac, Wells Fargo, Chase, and Washington Mutual – will have representatives on hand with many authorized to make loan modifications on the spot if they have all of the appropriate information from borrowers. For those who don’t have a loan through one of those five lenders, representatives of five different housing counseling firms that have HUD approval will serve as advocates.

“It means a lot to a lender when they get a call from someone that’s HUD approved,” said Ana Rocha, a Manteca Redevelopment Agency representative.

It’s all part of the grassroots non-profit No Homeowner Left Behind effort that has conducted nine similar efforts in the Northern San Joaquin Valley during the past year that have helped hundreds of families save their homes some times the same day of the workshop.

The Manteca gathering is this Friday from 2 to 8 p.m. at the Manteca Senior Center, 295 Cherry Lane. If you can’t make it Friday, there is also one Saturday from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. at the Stanislaus Agricultural Center at 3800 Capricornia.

Edward Parcaut – a certified mortgage planner with SourceOne Financial in Modesto who is among the moving forces behind the effort to give homeowners in distress free help that arms them with knowledge and connections necessary to have a solid chance at saving their homes – noted that the chances of getting a resolution has improved significantly in recent months.

“A lot more banks are willing to take steps and modify loans upfront,” Parcaut said. “It saves them a lot more money.”

It’s based on the new reality of home loan math. For example, if a loan is outstanding for $477,000 a bank now realizes if it foreclosures on a home it can only get $277,000. It costs as much as $57,000 in additional costs to foreclosure. The bank looks at that, considers loan modification and is able to reduce their losses upfront.

There is no guarantee that a home can be saved on the spot, but the organizers say it happens every time – or within weeks of the workshop.

As for those that can’t save their homes as a bank may decide against loan modification based on financials and income, organizer Dori Beck noted, “we can work to make sure they leave their homes with the same dignity they had when they moved in.”

Those attending need to bring their loan information and documents, pay stubs for the past month, and current mortgage payment.

“There’s a huge chance it (a loan modification) can happen,” Parcaut said of those who attend the workshop.

The Federal Reserve is helping publicize the Manteca workshop by sending notices all the way back to June 1 who got foreclosure notices in San Joaquin County.

Rocha said the City of Manteca is participating in the effort under the direction of the City Council that wants to do everything it can to help people keep their homes in Manteca.

It is also open to those who have bought homes as an investment.

Parcaut said banks have worked with those people as well adding that many of those homes have renters in them who will lose a place to stay if the bank forecloses.

At such gatherings in the past, some homeowners have been successful with negotiating with bank representatives on the spot to secure 30-year fixed rate loans that have kept them in their homes,

Organizers have cautioned that not all banks are working to that degree. They also warned that some people might simply not be in a position to be helped based on the determination of the bank to get a streamlined loan at a reduced rate. The climate today has vastly improved compared to six months ago when banks were struggling to figure out what to do.

There are over 1,200 homes in Manteca property in various stages of foreclosure. Either the bank have repossessed them, they are in escrow to be transferred to another buyer, are in the final stages of having their home reposed or have just missed their first payment.

There is a serious concern about whether the market can continue to absorb foreclosures.

That is why some banks – but not all – are now working with those caught up in the foreclosure process.

For more information contact the Manteca Redevelopment Agency at 239-8427.  

 
CAROL PERDEW
Prudential California Realty
(209) 239-7979
www.CentralValleyHomes.com